Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.244646 2.370081 2.505914 2.665337 2.849234 3.057207 3.314013
2025-09-21 2.098114 2.255535 2.433391 2.652803 2.921706 3.248788 3.691595
2025-09-28 1.978435 2.150947 2.351210 2.606619 2.933252 3.352836 3.965124
2025-10-05 1.933333 2.125867 2.355661 2.659247 3.066250 3.623685 4.519016
2025-10-12 1.908089 2.120291 2.380273 2.735780 3.235976 3.970767 5.296425
2025-10-19 1.850629 2.069890 2.342970 2.724790 3.279729 4.136634 5.830726
2025-10-26 1.807048 2.033577 2.320146 2.729580 3.344320 4.344713 6.543263
2025-11-02 1.745923 1.971381 2.259057 2.675074 3.311458 4.380035 6.895492
2025-11-09 1.704197 1.932060 2.225853 2.657082 3.332363 4.513344 7.575377
2025-11-16 1.667794 1.897861 2.197383 2.643232 3.357337 4.658163 8.410740
2025-11-23 1.632867 1.864038 2.167507 2.624769 3.371941 4.784980 9.330415
2025-11-30 1.613072 1.849278 2.162837 2.643204 3.450309 5.062252 11.286909
2025-12-07 1.560032 1.789355 2.094172 2.562061 3.350820 4.936726 11.215426
2025-12-14 1.532744 1.763142 2.071734 2.550917 3.374938 5.101055 13.180568
2025-12-21 1.497505 1.725045 2.030958 2.508704 3.338515 5.114056 14.292419
2025-12-28 1.492104 1.727130 2.047196 2.557065 3.474610 5.598907 23.627955
2026-01-04 1.493010 1.737674 2.075817 2.627144 3.662953 6.325164 419.200086
2026-01-11 1.471473 1.716346 2.056780 2.617118 3.689015 6.576686 NaN
2026-01-18 1.455019 1.701573 2.046778 2.621506 3.745660 6.964918 NaN
2026-01-25 1.425022 1.667034 2.006180 2.571636 3.680796 6.882797 NaN
2026-02-01 1.405114 1.646245 1.985561 2.555152 3.687547 7.086835 NaN
2026-02-08 1.387109 1.627691 1.967689 2.542454 3.701410 7.332290 NaN
2026-02-15 1.368827 1.608312 1.947960 2.525514 3.704068 7.537288 NaN